Argentina bonds today
ArgentinaCurves · relative value · breakevens
Hard-dollar sovereigns, fixed-rate and CER: yield against duration with relative-value (rich/cheap) detection, and the market's implied inflation against the REM consensus. Open methodology, updated daily after the close.
Argentina's hard-dollar sovereign bonds come in pairs with the same payments: Globales (GD tickers, New York law) and Bonares (AL tickers, Argentine law). The yield gap between them is the market's price for jurisdiction risk. In pesos, LECAPs pay a fixed rate and BONCERs are linked to inflation (CER).
Snapshot: 2026-10-26 · post-close · · PDF ↓
Peso fixed-rate (LECAPs and BONCAPs)
| Ticker | Price | Yield | Monthly rate | MD | Parity | vs curve | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S30O6 | 135.07 | 15.2% | 1.17% | 0.01 | 1.35 | -652 bps | rich |
| S13N6 | 108.49 | 24.2% | 1.80% | 0.04 | 1.08 | +193 bps | cheap |
| S30N6 | 127.11 | 25.3% | 1.87% | 0.08 | 1.27 | +227 bps | cheap |
| T15E7 | 152.75 | 27.2% | 1.99% | 0.17 | 1.53 | +228 bps | cheap |
| S29E7 | 104.87 | 27.3% | 2.01% | 0.20 | 1.05 | +194 bps | cheap |
| T30A7 | 138.10 | 29.1% | 2.12% | 0.39 | 1.38 | +60 bps | cheap |
| T31Y7 | 130.05 | 30.3% | 2.20% | 0.46 | 1.30 | +85 bps | cheap |
| T30J7 | 132.63 | 27.2% | 1.99% | 0.53 | 1.33 | -334 bps | rich |
CER (BONCER) · real yield
| Ticker | Price | Yield | MD | Parity | vs curve | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TZXO6 | 177.75 | -4.5% | 0.01 | 1.00 | -463 bps | rich |
| TX26 | 762.30 | 7.2% | 0.04 | 1.01 | +684 bps | cheap |
| TZXD6 | 313.45 | 3.0% | 0.13 | 1.00 | +182 bps | cheap |
| TZXM7 | 233.40 | 2.7% | 0.42 | 0.99 | -52 bps | rich |
| TZXA7 | 128.90 | 2.7% | 0.50 | 0.99 | -102 bps | rich |
| TZXY7 | 126.85 | 2.9% | 0.58 | 0.98 | -135 bps | rich |
| TZX27 | 414.25 | 4.1% | 0.65 | 0.97 | -54 bps | rich |
| TZXS7 | 112.35 | 5.0% | 0.88 | 0.96 | -93 bps | rich |
| TX28 | 1816.50 | 7.6% | 0.92 | 0.96 | +154 bps | cheap |
| TZXO7 | 102.15 | 5.5% | 0.96 | 0.95 | -77 bps | rich |
| TZXD7 | 292.00 | 6.8% | 1.06 | 0.93 | +8 bps | fair |
| TZXM8 | 104.35 | 8.7% | 1.32 | 0.89 | +87 bps | cheap |
| TZX28 | 363.30 | 9.9% | 1.53 | 0.85 | +128 bps | cheap |
| TZXS8 | 97.95 | 9.9% | 1.75 | 0.83 | +49 bps | cheap |
| TZXD8 | 87.70 | 10.1% | 1.94 | 0.81 | +9 bps | fair |
| TZXM9 | 93.50 | 9.9% | 2.20 | 0.80 | -91 bps | rich |
| TX31 | 1480.00 | 10.9% | 2.30 | 0.82 | -13 bps | fair |
USD sovereigns · Globales vs Bonares
Both curves on the same plane: the vertical gap at comparable duration is the jurisdiction premium (New York law vs Argentine law).
Globales (USD sovereigns, NY law)
Bonares (USD sovereigns, local law)
| Ticker | Price MEP | Yield | MD | Parity | Swap premium | vs curve | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AO27 | 103.75 | 2.7% | 0.95 | 1.04 | +6.74% | -476 bps | rich |
| AL29 | 54.00 | 9.1% | 1.27 | 0.90 | +6.64% | +60 bps | cheap |
| AL30 | 54.30 | 11.2% | 1.62 | 0.85 | +6.68% | +178 bps | cheap |
| AO28 | 90.52 | 12.1% | 1.68 | 0.91 | +6.43% | +261 bps | cheap |
| AO29 | 83.99 | 13.3% | 2.40 | 0.84 | +6.49% | +225 bps | cheap |
| AE38 | 71.21 | 13.5% | 3.74 | 0.71 | +6.68% | +26 bps | fair |
| AL35 | 68.40 | 13.0% | 4.57 | 0.68 | +6.59% | -130 bps | rich |
| AL41 | 63.14 | 13.0% | 4.78 | 0.63 | +6.84% | -145 bps | rich |
Inflation breakevens vs REM
Implied inflation between each BONCER and the peso fixed-rate instrument of comparable duration, against the REM median (21.1% — published 2026-09-30).
In line with the consensus.
CER cheap: the market prices in less inflation than the consensus.
CER expensive: the market prices in more inflation than the consensus.
CER expensive: the market prices in more inflation than the consensus.
CER expensive: the market prices in more inflation than the consensus.
CER expensive: the market prices in more inflation than the consensus.
CER expensive: the market prices in more inflation than the consensus.
In line with the consensus.
CER cheap: the market prices in less inflation than the consensus.
In line with the consensus.
Methodology
- Effective annual yield (ACT/365) and modified duration per bond, on cash flows from the official issuance terms (validated against IAMC). For Globales and Bonares, USD yield with the quote of your choice — MEP (D series, the canonical valuation for rich/cheap) or CCL (C series); the swap premium is the cable premium over the MEP on the same bond. For LECAPs/BONCAPs, monthly rate = (1+yield)^(30/365) − 1.
- For BONCER the yield is real (over CER): cash flows indexed by the coefficient at settlement date, applying the 10-business-day lag set by the issuance terms.
- Relative value: yield ~ ln(1+duration) fit per segment (least squares on the logarithmic form — concave, like the real term structure — with a robust refit excluding MAD outliers). Deviation vs curve > +30 bp = cheap; < −30 bp = rich.
- Breakeven = (1+fixed yield)/(1+CER yield) − 1, per pair of comparable duration, always in pesos. Consensus: REM (BCRA) median for inflation over the next 12 months.
General analytical information. It is not an investment recommendation or financial advice.
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