Señal Argentina · October 20, 2026
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
The country risk (EMBI) prepared by JP Morgan climbed this Tuesday, October 20, to 710 basis points, with a daily increase of 5,2%. The 35-unit rise pushed the index to its highest level since late October 2025. The movement came in response to widespread declines in sovereign bonds on Wall Street. Foreign-law Global bonds recorded average drops of 1,5%, with pullbacks exceeding 0,9% across several issues. Presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier attributed the jump to international uncertainty.
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Country risk (EMBI) jumps to 710 points, its highest level in nearly a year
The country risk (EMBI) prepared by JP Morgan climbed this Tuesday, October 20, to 710 basis points, with a daily increase of 5,2%. The 35-unit rise pushed the index to its highest level since late October 2025. The movement came in response to widespread declines in sovereign bonds on Wall Street. Foreign-law Global bonds recorded average drops of 1,5%, with pullbacks exceeding 0,9% across several issues. Presidential spokesperson Adrián Ravier attributed the jump to international uncertainty.
Why it matters
Breaking through the 700-point mark makes access to external financing more expensive for both the State and corporations. Those managing local portfolios are seeing valuations on their US dollar-denominated government bonds trimmed. For some analysts, the decline reflects growing doubts about sovereign repayment capacity. For the administration, on the other hand, it is a transitory external shock. The government maintains that it has adequate financial tools.
What to watch
It is worth watching the performance of Global bonds in the coming sessions and the reaction of corporate debt. A stabilization in external prices will validate the official stance. If selling pressure continues, financing costs for Argentine issuers will remain at restrictive levels.
Also matters
Exports hit an all-time record in September. Foreign sales reached US$10.036 million in September, with a 23,5% year-on-year increase driven by energy. The trade balance for the month posted a surplus of US$2.976 million. Bloomberg Línea →
Labor Assistance Fund postponed to December. The government postponed the implementation of the scheme by one month and extended the required prior contributions from six to twelve months. The measure was enacted via Decree 1228/2026 in the Official Gazette. El Economista →
The official dollar quoted at 1555 pesos. The official currency traded at $1555 to sell this Tuesday, October 20. Meanwhile, the blue dollar (informal rate) stood at $1560. Ámbito Finanzas →
Dashboard
| Official dollar | $ 1.540,00 | +0,3% |
| MEP dollar | $ 1.542,10 | 0,0% |
| CCL dollar | $ 1.626,30 | +0,4% |
| Blue dollar (informal rate) | $ 1.565,00 | +0,6% |
| CCL / official spread | 5,6% | |
| Country risk (EMBI) | 675 bp | 0 bp |
| Merval | 2.848.945 points | -0,4% |
| Monetary policy rate as of 16/10 | 22,7 % TNA | +0,92 pp |
| BCRA reserves as of 15/10 | USD 50.043 M | +320 USD M |
| Oil | USD 100,70 | -2,9% |
| Soybeans | USD 1.256,50 | +0,2% |
| Copper | USD 6,57 | +0,5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | USD 766,48 | +0,4% |
| VIX | 18,4 points | -7,8% |
| US 10-year rate | 5,14 % | +0,04 pp |
What to watch today
| Today | Business tendency survey. Manufacturing industry. Expectations October-December 2026 AR |
| Today | Business tendency survey. Supermarkets and wholesale self-service stores. Expectations October-December 2026 AR |
| 21/10 | Monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE). August 2026 AR |
This is not investment advice. The information published is general and does not take into account individual situations. Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26.831).
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