Señal Argentina · October 26, 2026
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
Lula da Silva's victory in Brazil's presidential runoff generated a strong impact on markets. The EWZ ETF, which groups Brazilian companies, plunged up to 27% in premarket. Shares like Petrobras (-21%), Itaú (-27%), and Bradesco (-29%) also fell. The real depreciated 10%, reaching 5.58 reais per dollar. The ripple effect spread to Argentine assets. ADRs on Wall Street plummeted up to 40%. Mercado Libre fell 15%. YPF retreated 5.87%, GGAL 5.57%, and Banco Macro 4.72%. Sovereign bonds Global 2029 and Global 2046 fell 0.60% and 1.49% respectively.
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Lula's victory shakes Brazil and triggers a sharp fall in Argentine assets
Lula da Silva's victory in Brazil's presidential runoff generated a strong impact on markets. The EWZ ETF, which groups Brazilian companies, plunged up to 27% in premarket. Shares like Petrobras (-21%), Itaú (-27%), and Bradesco (-29%) also fell. The real depreciated 10%, reaching 5.58 reais per dollar. The ripple effect spread to Argentine assets. ADRs on Wall Street plummeted up to 40%. Mercado Libre fell 15%. YPF retreated 5.87%, GGAL 5.57%, and Banco Macro 4.72%. Sovereign bonds Global 2029 and Global 2046 fell 0.60% and 1.49% respectively.
Why it matters
The fall in Brazilian assets and the depreciation of the real directly impact Argentina. Brazil is the main trading partner, and its volatility affects local exchange rate competitiveness. Lower global emerging market risk appetite hits valuations of companies with regional exposure, such as Mercado Libre. Furthermore, the pressure extends to sovereign debt assets, raising the expectation of an increase in country risk (EMBI).
What to watch
It will be key to observe the formal opening of the Brazilian stock market and the evolution of the real. The behavior of Argentine ADRs and bonds will also be monitored. The City will be attentive to the impact on country risk (EMBI) and local exchange rate pressure, especially due to the drain on reserves.
Also matters
Dollar: focus on reserves and Brazil. The local exchange market is paying attention to the drain on reserves and pressure on the exchange rate. This occurs after the real's devaluation and the wholesale dollar's close at $1,529.50 on Friday. Ámbito Finanzas →
ARCA regulates Tax Innocence II. ARCA regulated Tax Innocence II, relaxing income and asset requirements. This allows more taxpayers to access the simplified income tax declaration. Perfil Economía →
Dashboard
| official dollar | $ 1.550,00 | 0,0% |
| MEP | $ 1.563,90 | +0,7% |
| CCL | $ 1.654,00 | +0,9% |
| blue dollar (informal rate) | $ 1.565,00 | 0,0% |
| CCL / official gap | 6,7% | |
| country risk (EMBI) | 707 bp | 0 bp |
| Merval | 2,848,945 points | -0,4% |
| Monetary policy rate as of 10/22 | 22.0% nominal annual rate | -0.42 pp |
| BCRA Reserves as of 10/21 | US$ 50,228 M | +27 US$ M |
| Oil | US$ 101.36 | -1,9% |
| Soybeans | US$ 1,253.50 | -0,2% |
| Copper | US$ 6.54 | +1,0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | US$ 759.97 | -0,5% |
| VIX | 19.4 points | +2,2% |
| US 10-year rate | 4,99 % | +0.04 pp |
What to watch today
| Today | International tourism statistics. September and Q3 2026 AR |
| Today | Treasury · Tender call AR |
| 28/10 | Treasury · Bills and bonds tender AR |
| 28/10 | FOMC · Fed rate decision US |
| 29/10 | US · Personal income and spending (PCE) US |
This is not an investment recommendation. The information published is general and does not consider particular situations. Operating in financial markets implies risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26,831).
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