● ACTIVOpredictor #6
oraculo.v4-limerick
temp 0.40 · horiz auto
Codename estable derivado del id de la configuración en el sandbox. El formato oraculo.vX.Y-tipo es opaco a propósito: no publicamos los nombres comerciales para que la auditoría se mida solo por el método (temperatura, horizonte, hit rate).
% de aciertos
30.2%
325 tesis cerradas
Predicciones
330
totales
Rendimiento real prom.
-0.55%
objetivo prom. 3.5%
Creatividad
0.40
horizonte auto días
Activo desde 2026-04-21 → 2026-08-14
Predicciones recientes
100 tesis, ordenadas por fecha| Fecha | Ticker | Tesis | Confianza | Horizonte | Objetivo | Real | Resultado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | HD | HD: earnings 18/8, mercado no lo descuenta | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | +1.6% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-08-14 | WMT | WMT: earnings 20/8, mercado no pricea sorpresa | 6 | 5 | +3.0% | -10.0% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-14 | NVDA | NVDA: earnings 26/8, mercado no lo descuenta | 7 | 5 | +5.0% | -4.6% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-13 | AMAT | AMAT: earnings hoy, mercado no reacciona | 7 | 2 | +3.0% | +0.1% | neutral |
| 2026-08-13 | TX26 | TX26: mercado no descuenta recorte de tasa BCRA | 6 | 5 | +1.8% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-08-13 | GD30 | GD30: reservas en máximos, bono rezagado | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-08-12 | GGAL | GGAL: spread vs BMA en máximos, catch-up | 7 | 3 | +4.5% | -5.3% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-12 | AMAT | AMAT: earnings post-market 13/08, mercado no lo descuenta | 6 | 2 | +3.5% | -8.4% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-12 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país sube, bono no reacciona | 6 | 3 | +2.0% | -1.9% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-11 | S30Y4 | S30Y4: Tasa real negativa se amplía | 6 | 5 | +1.2% | — | abierta |
| 2026-08-11 | AL30 | AL30: licitación mañana + riesgo país 451 | 6 | 3 | +2.0% | -0.5% | neutral |
| 2026-08-11 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país 451 y sube 30pbs, bono rezagado | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | -1.5% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-10 | AMAT | AMAT: earnings el jueves, mercado no lo pricea | 6 | 3 | +4.0% | +4.7% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-08-10 | CSCO | CSCO: earnings 12/8 post-market, mercado no pricea | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | -7.2% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-10 | SE | SE: earnings pre-market mañana, mercado no lo pricea | 6 | 2 | +5.0% | +12.4% | acierto |
| 2026-08-07 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo -9% en 5d, acción no reaccionó | 6 | 3 | +-3.5% | -0.1% | neutral |
| 2026-08-07 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos | 7 | 3 | +4.5% | -4.0% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-07 | BAP | BAP: earnings 13/8, mercado no lo descuenta | 6 | 4 | +3.5% | -3.0% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-06 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país 421 no pricea rally de bonos | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | +0.3% | neutral |
| 2026-08-06 | GD30 | GD30: reservas récord y riesgo país 421 no priceado | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | -0.6% | neutral |
| 2026-08-06 | TX26 | TX26: tasa BCRA 21.45% no priceada en CER | 6 | 5 | +1.5% | +0.8% | neutral |
| 2026-08-05 | SE | SE: earnings pre-market 11/8, gap sin cubrir | 6 | 4 | +5.0% | +15.6% | acierto |
| 2026-08-05 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país cae, bono aún rezagado | 6 | 3 | +2.5% | -0.1% | neutral |
| 2026-08-05 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país cae, bono corto rezagado | 6 | 3 | +2.5% | -0.4% | neutral |
| 2026-08-04 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país cae 11pbs, bono no reacciona | 6 | 5 | +2.0% | -0.4% | neutral |
| 2026-08-04 | S30Y4 | S30Y4: licitación del 12/08 comprime tasa | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | — | abierta |
| 2026-08-04 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país 430pbs, spread vs GD30 se comprime | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | -0.9% | neutral |
| 2026-08-03 | TX26 | TX26: tasa real positiva se consolida | 7 | 5 | +1.8% | +0.5% | neutral |
| 2026-08-03 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo -5.7%, mercado no descuenta rebote | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | -3.3% | fracaso |
| 2026-08-03 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país 430 y spread con AL30 | 6 | 3 | +1.5% | -0.8% | neutral |
| 2026-07-31 | YPFD | YPF: petróleo +9% en 30d, acción rezagada | 6 | 5 | +4.0% | -6.2% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-31 | TX26 | TX26: tasa real positiva en licitación | 6 | 3 | +1.8% | +0.0% | neutral |
| 2026-07-31 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país 441, spread comprimido | 6 | 5 | +3.0% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-07-30 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país bajo no priceado en hard dollar | 7 | 5 | +2.0% | +1.0% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-30 | TX27 | TX27: CER no descuenta baja de tasa BCRA | 6 | 5 | +1.8% | — | abierta |
| 2026-07-30 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país en 441 no refleja mejora de reservas | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | +1.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-29 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 3.5% hoy, acción no reacciona | 7 | 2 | +3.0% | +3.9% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-29 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país en 442 pbs, spread vs AL30 anómalo | 7 | 3 | +2.5% | +0.7% | neutral |
| 2026-07-29 | AL30 | AL30: spread vs GD30 se amplía pese a baja de riesgo país | 7 | 3 | +2.0% | +0.9% | neutral |
| 2026-07-28 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo corrigió, acción no lo reflejó | 6 | 3 | +-3.0% | +4.2% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-28 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs AL30 en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | -0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-07-28 | AL30 | AL30: spread vs GD30 en máximos de 60d | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | -0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-07-27 | AMD | AMD: earnings post-market 4/8, mercado subestima | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | -3.9% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-27 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo corrige fuerte, margen de refino se expande | 6 | 3 | +3.0% | +0.1% | neutral |
| 2026-07-27 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs riesgo país se amplió sin razón | 6 | 3 | +1.5% | -2.3% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-24 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 7.9% en 5d, acción rezagada | 6 | 3 | +4.0% | -2.7% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-24 | AMD | AMD: earnings post-market 4/8, mercado subestima | 6 | 5 | +5.0% | -9.8% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-24 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs riesgo país comprimible | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | -0.6% | neutral |
| 2026-07-23 | GOOGL | GOOGL: oversold extremo con volumen récord | 6 | 3 | +4.0% | +5.7% | acierto |
| 2026-07-23 | VIST | VIST: rezago sectorial energético | 6 | 5 | +3.5% | -2.7% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-23 | SNDK | SNDK: volumen anómalo anticipa rebote | 7 | 5 | +8.0% | -21.9% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-21 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 4.7% en 5d, acción rezagada | 6 | 3 | +3.0% | +1.7% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-21 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs riesgo país comprimible | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | +1.4% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-21 | AL30 | AL30: spread vs GD30 en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | +1.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-20 | AAPL | AAPL: earnings q3 el 30/7, mercado subestima | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | -1.6% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-20 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 4% en 5d, acción rezagada | 6 | 3 | +2.5% | +5.6% | acierto |
| 2026-07-20 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 2 | +4.5% | +5.5% | acierto |
| 2026-07-17 | TX26 | TX26: CER alto no priceado en curva corta | 6 | 5 | +1.8% | +0.6% | neutral |
| 2026-07-17 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 11% en 5d, acción rezagada | 7 | 5 | +5.0% | +5.3% | acierto |
| 2026-07-17 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 3 | +5.0% | +5.3% | acierto |
| 2026-07-16 | TX26 | TX26: CER no descuenta tasa real negativa | 6 | 5 | +1.8% | +0.7% | neutral |
| 2026-07-16 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 10% en 5d, acción rezagada | 7 | 5 | +5.0% | +10.0% | acierto |
| 2026-07-16 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país en 410 pb no descuenta mejora de reservas | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | +0.6% | neutral |
| 2026-07-15 | NFLX | NFLX: earnings post-market mañana, mercado no pricea | 7 | 2 | +5.0% | -5.7% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-15 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 3 | +4.5% | -4.4% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-15 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 9% en 5d, acción rezagada | 6 | 3 | +4.0% | +0.8% | neutral |
| 2026-07-14 | YPFD | YPFD: rezago sectorial por suba de crudo | 7 | 3 | +5.0% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-07-14 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs AL30 en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | +1.2% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-14 | AL30 | AL30: spread vs GD30 en máximos de 3 meses | 7 | 5 | +1.8% | +1.5% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-13 | GS | GS: earnings pre-market mañana, mercado no lo descuenta | 7 | 2 | +4.0% | +9.8% | acierto |
| 2026-07-13 | BAC | BAC: earnings pre-market mañana, spread vs JPM | 7 | 2 | +3.5% | +3.5% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-13 | JPM | JPM: earnings pre-market mañana, expectativas bajas | 7 | 2 | +3.0% | +3.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-10 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos de 2026 | 7 | 3 | +4.0% | -1.6% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-10 | BAC | BAC: earnings pre-market 14/7 no priceados | 6 | 2 | +2.5% | +1.6% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-10 | JPM | JPM: earnings pre-market 14/7 no priceados | 7 | 3 | +2.5% | +3.2% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-08 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos, convergencia | 7 | 3 | +4.5% | +2.5% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-08 | PEP | PEP: earnings pre-market mañana, expectativas bajas | 6 | 2 | +3.5% | -3.6% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-08 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo sube 7% en 5d, acción rezagada | 6 | 3 | +4.0% | +1.8% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-07 | AERBD | AERBD: spread vs AERAD en máximos | 7 | 5 | +1.5% | +0.7% | neutral |
| 2026-07-07 | AERBD | AERBD: spread vs soberanos se comprime | 6 | 7 | +1.8% | +0.0% | neutral |
| 2026-07-07 | GD30 | GD30: spread vs riesgo país en máximos | 7 | 7 | +2.5% | -12.9% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-06 | YPFD | YPFD: soja sube 4.4% y crudo cae, margen refino se expande | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | +2.4% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-06 | GGAL | GGAL: spread con BMA en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 3 | +3.5% | -5.3% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-06 | PEP | PEP: earnings pre-market 9/7, mercado no lo descuenta | 6 | 3 | +2.5% | -3.8% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-03 | AL30 | AL30: riesgo país en mínimos, bono corto aún no lo refleja | 7 | 5 | +2.5% | -13.1% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-03 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país en 421, bono aún rezagado | 6 | 5 | +2.5% | -13.3% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-03 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo cayó 30% en 30d, acción no siguió | 7 | 5 | +-4.0% | +3.9% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-02 | PEP | PEP: earnings pre-market 9/7, mercado no lo descuenta | 6 | 7 | +2.5% | -7.5% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-02 | TX26 | TX26: CER no descuenta baja de tasa BCRA | 6 | 5 | +1.8% | +0.9% | neutral |
| 2026-07-02 | GD30 | GD30: riesgo país en 426 pbs no está priceado | 7 | 5 | +2.0% | -12.9% | fracaso |
| 2026-07-01 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo cae pero YPF no ajustó | 6 | 3 | +5.0% | +3.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-01 | GGAL | GGAL: spread vs BMA en máximos, convergencia inminente | 7 | 2 | +4.5% | +3.7% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-07-01 | YPFD | YPFD: petróleo cayó 36% en 30d, acción no reaccionó | 6 | 3 | +-4.0% | +3.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-06-30 | TXAR | TXAR: rezago sectorial en siderurgia | 6 | 3 | +3.5% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-06-30 | GGAL | GGAL: rezago sectorial bancario post resultados | 7 | 3 | +4.5% | +2.3% | acierto modesto |
| 2026-06-30 | BYMA | BYMA: volumen récord sin precio | 7 | 3 | +4.0% | -0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-06-29 | CAG | CAG: earnings post-market 08/07, precio rezagado | 6 | 5 | +3.0% | +0.4% | neutral |
| 2026-06-29 | TX26 | TX26: CER alto y tasa plana = carry atractivo | 6 | 3 | +1.2% | +0.2% | neutral |
| 2026-06-29 | STZ | STZ: earnings post-market mañana, mercado infravalora | 6 | 2 | +3.0% | -2.0% | fracaso |
| 2026-06-26 | TX26 | TX26: licitación del Tesoro presiona precio | 6 | 3 | +1.5% | +0.4% | neutral |