El Oráculo · 0 for 2 — week of 19/10–23/10
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
Two directional signals, two misses: El Oráculo closed the week at 0 for 2 and an average return of -8 percent.
El Oráculo · Analysis
Week of October 19 to 23, 2026
The result
0 for 2
hits on directional predictions · hit rate 0%
2 misses · 1 neutral (outside the hit rate)
Two directional signals, two misses: El Oráculo closed the week at 0 for 2 and an average return of -8 percent.
Measured predictions
| MON 19/10AMZN · inverse sector lag: amzn holds up while the sector drops · 4d | -5.5%MISS |
| WED 21/10GLOB · breakout at 60d high + discounted valuation · 4d | -0.5%NEUTRAL |
| FRI 23/10NU · unpriced catalyst due to exogenous risk-off · 2d | -18.2%MISS |
Featured cases
GLOB · CEDEAR
-0.5% in 4 sessions · NEUTRAL
Entry $43.20 → exit $42.97
GLOB: breakout at 60d high with pending rerating
NU · CEDEAR
-18.2% in 2 sessions · MISS
Entry $15.16 → exit $12.40
NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
Not measurable
The next measurement starts from scratch; two cases without a verdict from this week remain pending resolution.
This is not an investment recommendation. The published information is general and does not take into account specific situations. Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult with a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Ley 26.831).
Keep reading
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · SNDK: SK Hynix +632% didn't price in on BYMA
SK Hynix reported a quarterly profit of +632% today and promised a $45B return plan, dragging SanDisk and Micron along in US pre-market. The CEDEAR on BYMA rose only +2.34% when the underlying gained nearly double overnight — the price lag has not closed. SNDK reports its own results tomorrow with a record of 4 consecutive beats (+12% to +76% surprises) and 29 analysts at buy/strong_buy without a single sell.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.