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Sin categoríaTue · Oct 27 2026El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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Sin categoríaMon · Oct 26 2026El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
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Sin categoríaFri · Oct 23 2026El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.
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Sin categoríaThu · Oct 22 2026El Oráculo · GD30: reserves rise but the bond didn't move
BCRA reserves have accumulated an 8.81% recovery from their 60-day low and closed the week at 50.153M, trending upward over the last 5 days. GD30, which is the direct proxy for hard-dollar sovereign risk perception, is trading just 0.87% above its 60-day low and with flat momentum (-0.13% in 20 days), without having reflected that external balance improvement. The EMBI at 674 bps (below the 800 stress threshold) confirms that the global credit market is already pricing in a healthier profile, but the local bond price did not follow.
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Sin categoríaWed · Oct 21 2026El Oráculo · GLOB: breakout at 60d high with pending rerating
Globant closed today at its 60-day high with 18% momentum over 20 sessions and a vol_ratio of 1.6, signaling sustained accumulation. The market has not yet priced in the valuation rerating: analysts estimate the stock trades 36% below its intrinsic value based on cash flows, representing a medium-term catalyst that could begin to be priced in over the coming week. The closest historical setups in 60d features show returns of +4.8% and +8.1% over 3-5 day horizons when the stock breaks out to a 60-day high with positive momentum.
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Sin categoríaWed · Oct 21 2026El Oráculo · 1 of 2 — week of 14/10–16/10
A week with two faces: one hit, one miss, and a result that settles nothing.
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Sin categoríaTue · Oct 20 2026El Oráculo · YM37D: yield at 60-day high with no YPF deterioration
The corporate bond (ON) YPF 2037 USD yields 7.12% versus a 30-day average of 6.91%, with its yield at a 60-day high and the price dropping 1.3% over five consecutive sessions with no specific credit catalyst. Country risk (EMBI) rose just 27 bp today, suggesting that selling pressure on YM37D is technical and does not reflect a deterioration in YPF credit. Historically, these 20 bp dislocation episodes above the mean in local investment-grade corporate bonds (ON) converge within 5-7 sessions.
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Sin categoríaMon · Oct 19 2026El Oráculo · AMZN: unpriced relative resilience
In a week where the SOX fell for 8 consecutive sessions and stocks like NBIS, IREN and CRWV lost between 25% and 43%, AMZN closed just -0.88% from its MA20 with a vol_ratio of 0.61 — no panic selling. That divergence of relative resilience in a risk-off market indicates that the stock has institutional support that the price does not yet reflect. With earnings confirmed on 29/10 post-market, pre-report repositioning should begin over the next 4 days.
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Sin categoríaFri · Oct 16 2026El Oráculo · NU: double volume without price, quiet accumulation
NU is trading at double its 30d average volume (vol_ratio 2.1) while the price drops just 0.17% — a classic pattern of institutional accumulation without distribution. The financial sector has lagged for months due to AI disruption fears, but Morningstar named it a top financial pick today alongside FISV and LPLA, a narrative catalyst that has not yet been reflected in the price. With earnings 27 days away, there is no immediate event risk distorting the technical reading.
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Sin categoríaThu · Oct 15 2026El Oráculo · NOW: 5x volume with flat price, accumulation
ServiceNow is trading today with a vol_ratio of 5.32x over its 30-day average while the price is barely up 1.62%: the classic divergence of quiet institutional accumulation. In a market where SPY is down -1.08% and QQQ loses -2%, NOW is holding up with anomalous demand — that is not noise, it is positioning ahead of 28/10 earnings. The only comparable historical setup in this ticker yielded +2.64% in 3 days.
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Sin categoríaWed · Oct 14 2026El Oráculo · GOOGL: AI rotation + earnings in 14 days
Today's narrative is clear: AI capital is rotating from chipmakers toward software and cloud, and Alphabet is the primary beneficiary. GOOGL closed at a 60-day high with positive momentum (+2.71% over 20 days) and contained volatility (22.8% annualized), suggesting orderly accumulation without speculative excess. The market hasn't yet priced in the pre-earnings effect: the 28/10 report (post-market, confirmed) acts as a catalyst 14 days in advance, and historically, stocks with this profile of rotation + imminent earnings generate upward drift in the preceding week.
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Sin categoríaWed · Oct 14 2026El Oráculo · 1 of 3 — week of 05/10–09/10
A week of three directional calls, only one hit: El Oráculo finished at 33%.
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