El Oráculo · 1 of 2 — week of 14/10–16/10
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
A week with two faces: one hit, one miss, and a result that settles nothing.
El Oráculo · Analysis
Week of October 14 to 16, 2026
The outcome
1 of 2
hits on directional predictions · hit rate 50%
1 hit · 1 miss · 1 neutral (outside the hit rate)
A week with two faces: one hit, one miss, and a result that settles nothing.
Tracked predictions
| WED 14/10GOOGL · pre-earnings drift with sector rotation · 4d | -2.1%MISS |
| THU 15/10NOW · volume/price divergence — silent accumulation · 3d | +0.7%NEUTRAL |
| FRI 16/10NU · accumulation with vol_ratio 2.1 and sector lag · 2d | +3.6%HIT |
Highlights
NU · CEDEAR
+3.6% in 2 sessions · HIT
Entry $14.56 → exit $15.09
NU: double volume without price, silent accumulation
GOOGL · CEDEAR
-2.1% in 4 sessions · MISS
Entry $347.64 → exit $340.28
GOOGL: AI rotation + earnings in 14 days
Non-measurable
With two defined predictions, 50% is a starting point, not a conclusion.
This is not an investment recommendation. The published information is general and does not take into account individual situations. Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26.831).
Keep reading
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.