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El Oráculo · 2 de 3 — semana del 03/08–07/08
Dos de tres señales cerraron en verde, aunque con solo tres casos medibles el número dice poco sobre la calidad del método.
El Oráculo · Análisis
Semana del 3 al 7 de agosto, 2026
El resultado
2 de 3
predicciones acertadas · hit rate 67%
Dos de tres señales cerraron en verde, aunque con solo tres casos medibles el número dice poco sobre la calidad del método.
Predicciones medidas
Casos destacados
MELI · CEDEAR
+6.6% en 2 sesiones · ACIERTO
Entry $1820.69 → exit $1940.00
MELI: sell-off post-earnings ya priceado, vol 6.5x
AMZN · CEDEAR
-4.1% en 3 sesiones · FRACASO
Entry $284.02 → exit $272.26
AMZN: breakout en maximo 60d con volumen 8x
No medibles
La semana que viene llegan más señales a vencimiento, con una muestra más amplia para leer mejor el rendimiento.
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
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El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.