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El Oráculo · ADBE: RSI reversion con 71% hit-rate historico
La señal rsi_reversion long disparó hoy en ADBE con un hit-rate histórico de 71.1% sobre 52 casos, 22 puntos porcentuales por encima del azar, con p-value de 0.001 y persistencia out-of-sample confirmada. Los dos setups kNN más cercanos terminaron en acierto_modesto con retornos de +1.77% y +4.55% a 3-5 días respectivamente, lo que ancla el target. El papel está solo 0.5% abajo del máximo 60d con momentum positivo y volumen bajo (vol_ratio 0.64), lo que sugiere que la señal no está sobrecomprada — el mercado aún no reaccionó al setup técnico.
El Oráculo
Jueves 27 de agosto de 2026
| ADBE | CEDEAR |
▲RSI REVERSION LONG — EDGE CUANTIFICADO 22PP SOBRE BASE
Target +3.2% · 5 sesiones
|
Conf. 7/10 |
Prob. 66% |
Target +3.2% |
Stop -2.5% |
ADBE: RSI reversion con 71% hit-rate historico
El dato clave
Hit-rate 71.1% en 52 señales, edge 22pp, p-value 0.001, OOS persistente
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
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El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.