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El Oráculo · ALAB: 4 beats seguidos, -40% del maximo
Astera Labs acumula cuatro trimestres consecutivos de EPS por encima de estimaciones (el último Q2 2026 con +13.4% de sorpresa) y el mercado local no trasladó esa fortaleza al precio: el CEDEAR cotiza 40% abajo del máximo de 60 días con volumen mínimo hoy (vol_ratio 0.32), señal de que no hay presión vendedora activa sino simple inercia. NVDA reporta esta noche post-market; si confirma la demanda de infraestructura AI — como ya hizo AWS en el reporte de Amazon — el flujo sectorial debería alcanzar a los proveedores de conectividad como ALAB en las próximas sesiones.
El Oráculo
Miércoles 26 de agosto de 2026
| ALAB | CEDEAR |
■REZAGO POST-CORRECCIÓN CON CATALYST NVDA
Target +6.5% · 4 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 60% |
Target +6.5% |
Stop -5.0% |
ALAB: 4 beats seguidos, -40% del maximo
El dato clave
ALAB: 4 EPS beats consecutivos, -40% vs high 60d, vol_ratio 0.32
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
787495956b060074a359b6d666f1a72ae6917efe8bc937ef683e73a171ae2cae y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.