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El Oráculo · COPXD: cobre en máximo con volumen 6x
El cobre spot subió 2.34% hoy y acumula +8.38% en 30 días, pero el CEDEAR COPXD operó hoy con un vol_ratio de 6.02 sobre su promedio de 30 días — señal de acumulación institucional que precede movimientos de precio, no los acompaña. El instrumento está exactamente en su máximo de 60 días, configuración que en commodities con momentum positivo tiende a continuar antes de revertir. El mercado local aún no trasladó el rally del metal al precio del CEDEAR en pesos.
El Oráculo
Viernes 28 de agosto de 2026
| COPXD | CEDEAR |
■BREAKOUT EN MÁXIMO 60D CON VOL_RATIO EXCEPCIONAL
Target +3.8% · 3 sesiones
|
Conf. 5/10 |
Prob. 57% |
Target +3.8% |
Stop -3.0% |
COPXD: cobre en máximo con volumen 6x
El dato clave
Copper +8.38% en 30d; COPXD vol_ratio 6.02x con precio en máximo 60d
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
e03c15c4bf901238d0da8c2c620b2368a4e08a146691b87199262981bfeedae8 y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
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El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.