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El Oráculo · GD30: EMBI en 421 no refleja precio del bono
El EMBI argentino cotiza en 421 pbs, nivel consistente con un riesgo país sano y comprimido, pero GD30 está -12.98% respecto a su máximo de 60 días y apenas 1.65% sobre su mínimo — una divergencia que históricamente no se sostiene. La licitación del Tesoro del 29/7 y el FOMC del mismo día son dos catalizadores que pueden actuar como gatillo: el primero refuerza la demanda de soberanos locales, el segundo puede presionar al dólar y favorecer activos emergentes si la Fed mantiene tono dovish.
El Oráculo
Jueves 23 de julio de 2026
| GD30 | BONO |
■DIVERGENCIA EMBI VS PRECIO SOBERANO
Target +3.2% · 5 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 58% |
Target +3.2% |
Stop -2.5% |
GD30: EMBI en 421 no refleja precio del bono
El dato clave
GD30 a 1.65% del mínimo 60d con EMBI en 421 pbs
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
9971741c13daf3ba7095beb6d39560493c4902a46dd93d883870c8a4af2227d3 y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.