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El Oráculo · IBIT: rezagado del rally cripto de hoy
Bitcoin subió 5% impulsado por comentarios dovish del gobernador de la Fed Waller, que abrió la puerta a una pausa en septiembre. COIN subió 9.56% y MSTR 17.26% en la misma sesión, mientras IBIT avanzó solo 5.22% — un rezago relativo claro dentro del mismo trade. El setup más cercano en el historial (20/08) con features similares dio +8.54% en 3 días. El catalizador ya está activo y el posicionamiento institucional en el ETF de BlackRock tiende a seguir con demora al movimiento especulativo de los proxies apalancados.
El Oráculo
Viernes 4 de septiembre de 2026
| IBIT | CEDEAR |
■REZAGO SECTORIAL VS COIN Y MSTR EN RALLY BTC
Target +5.5% · 3 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 62% |
Target +5.5% |
Stop -3.5% |
IBIT: rezagado del rally cripto de hoy
El dato clave
COIN +9.56%, MSTR +17.26% vs IBIT +5.22% en mismo rally BTC
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
8380456ecd790d0d5887ef226f7ca1b0b19d9425c8243605b403c498ef8bfabc y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.