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El Oráculo · MELI: compresion de riesgo pais no priceo
El riesgo pais argentino cayo 78 puntos basicos en una sola sesion hasta 425 pbs, nivel que historicamente actua como catalizador de rerating para activos LatAm con exposicion a Argentina. MELI es el unico CEDEAR del universo con momentum positivo a 20 dias (+8.76%) y posicion sobre MA20 (+1.68%), lo que indica que el mercado ya eligio este papel como el de menor resistencia al alza. El FOMC de hoy, si confirma pausa o tono dovish, agrega un driver de risk-on global que amplifica el efecto de la compresion local.
El Oráculo
Miércoles 17 de junio de 2026
| MELI | CEDEAR |
■REZAGO VS COMPRESION EMBI + MOMENTUM POSITIVO
Target +3.2% · 3 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 58% |
Target +3.2% |
Stop -2.5% |
MELI: compresion de riesgo pais no priceo
El dato clave
EMBI ARG -78 pbs hoy a 425 pbs; MELI momentum 20d +8.76%
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
ac81a9491186dca333da3211dc7ffd49c33cda212956949388ed4ed862d738bb y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
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El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.