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El Oráculo · MSFT: drift pre-earnings con momentum 8%
MSFT reporta el 29/07 post-market (confirmado) con momentum 20d de +8.27% y precio 4.06% arriba de MA20, el perfil técnico más sólido del universo CEDEAR hoy. El mercado aún no incorporó la compresión de volatilidad implícita típica de los 5-8 días previos a un earnings de mega-cap: históricamente ese drift alcista se materializa en la semana previa al reporte. Los setups similares del 12/06 y 26/06 dieron retornos neutros bajos, lo que ancla el target a un rango conservador de +1.5-2.5% antes del evento.
El Oráculo
Lunes 20 de julio de 2026
| MSFT | CEDEAR |
■PRE-EARNINGS DRIFT + MOMENTUM POSITIVO
Target +2.1% · 4 sesiones
|
Conf. 5/10 |
Prob. 55% |
Target +2.1% |
Stop -2.5% |
MSFT: drift pre-earnings con momentum 8%
El dato clave
MSFT: momentum 20d +8.3%, earnings confirmados 29/07 post-market
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
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- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.