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El Oráculo · MU: pre-earnings drift con high 60d roto
Micron reporta el miercoles 24/6 post-market con estimaciones de q3 que el mercado anticipa positivas: el cedear sube 2.79% hoy y cotiza exactamente en su maximo de 60 dias (pct_vs_high_60d = 0.0), con momentum_20d de +62.8%. El sector semis acompana: AMD +1.15%, SNDK +2.53%, NVDA practicamente plano en una jornada donde el mercado general cae. El drift pre-earnings en tickers con momentum fuerte y ruptura de maximo tiende a continuar hasta el dia del reporte — el precio aun no incorpora la prima de evento.
El Oráculo
Lunes 22 de junio de 2026
| MU | CEDEAR |
■PRE-EARNINGS MOMENTUM EN MAXIMO 60D
Target +4.2% · 3 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 60% |
Target +4.2% |
Stop -3.5% |
MU: pre-earnings drift con high 60d roto
El dato clave
MU en maximo 60d, momentum +62.8% en 20d, earnings post-market 24/6
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
c05ec96621c8b47a5482b4523ca6fe0ab6ada8ecaf1e164c4b547ab75b69f46f y quedó anclada a Bitcoin (OpenTimestamps). No fue editada.Keep reading
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
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- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.