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El Oráculo · NKE: 4 beats seguidos y short record antes del repo…
Nike reporta manana post-market con 4 trimestres consecutivos de earnings beats masivos (+78%, +39%, +23%, +50% vs estimados) que el mercado no termino de pricear: 25 analistas en hold y 3 en sell. El short interest llego a un record historico de 87 millones de acciones, lo que implica que cualquier resultado por encima de las expectativas puede desencadenar un squeeze de cobertura. El vol_ratio de 4.45 hoy (casi excepcional) sugiere acumulacion anticipatoria silenciosa mientras el precio cayo 2.1% en la sesion — divergencia tipica de manos fuertes posicionandose antes del evento.

El Oráculo
Miércoles 30 de septiembre de 2026
| NKE | CEDEAR |
▼PRE-EARNINGS SQUEEZE CON SHORT INTEREST RECORD
Target +5.5% · 2 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 62% |
Target +5.5% |
Stop -3.5% |
NKE: 4 beats seguidos y short record antes del reporte
El dato clave
4 beats consecutivos NKE: +78%, +39%, +23%, +50% vs estimados
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
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El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
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El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.