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El Oráculo · TX26: CER corre 36% anual vs TNA 20%
El CER acumula +3.01% en 30 días (equivalente a ~36% anualizado) mientras la TNA de mercado se ubica en 20.37%, generando un spread de ~16 puntos porcentuales a favor del ajuste por inflación. TX26 apenas subió 1.32% en los últimos 20 días y cotiza solo 0.83% por encima de su MA20 — el diferencial de rendimiento real no está reflejado en el precio. Mañana hay licitación del Tesoro (17/07), catalizador de demanda para instrumentos en pesos, y las reservas cayeron 1,327 MM en 3 días, lo que presiona sobre los activos hard dollar y favorece el refugio en CER.
El Oráculo
Jueves 16 de julio de 2026
| TX26 | BONO |
■DIVERGENCIA CER VS TASA NOMINAL — SPREAD NO PRICEADO
Target +1.8% · 5 sesiones
|
Conf. 6/10 |
Prob. 62% |
Target +1.8% |
Stop -1.2% |
TX26: CER corre 36% anual vs TNA 20%
El dato clave
CER +3.01% mensual vs TNA 20.37%: spread 16 pp sin pricear
La tesis
Contexto
Esta no es una recomendación de inversión. La información publicada es general y no contempla situaciones particulares. Operar en mercados financieros implica riesgo de pérdida. Consultá con un asesor financiero registrado antes de tomar decisiones (Ley 26.831).
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El Oráculo · T31Y7: LECAP 84 bp cheap vs curve
The curve model flags T31Y7 as cheap with a residual of 84.78 bp compared to its fixed rate peers, the largest visible dislocation in today's bond universe. With positive momentum of +2.5% over 20d and the price just -0.31% off its 60d high, selling pressure does not explain the dislocation — a pricing lag in a relatively less liquid instrument is more likely. Convergence to curve fair value should materialize in 3-5 trading sessions as market makers adjust.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · BBD: up 3% despite Lula shock on 5x vol
Bradesco reported solid results on 23/oct (loan portfolio exceeded BRL 1.1 trillion, BRL 10B capital increase, 45M digital clients) and is up 3.4% today on volume 5.3x the 30-day average, despite the broad selloff in Brazilian ADRs following Lula's victory. The divergence is the signal: the market is punishing the political backdrop, but BBD has already absorbed the positive fundamental catalyst. The Donchian breakout triggered today has a 61% hit rate vs 47.8% base rate, confirmed out-of-sample, with a 2-day horizon.
- Sin categoría
El Oráculo · NU: systemic selloff erases UBS upgrade
NU falls -2.19% today on volume 3.56x average, dragged down by the broad tech selloff (Nasdaq -2.6%) following Meta's capex noise. The UBS upgrade to $20.50 on 20/10 generated +5.8% that day, but today's systemic panic is erasing part of that move with no fundamental deterioration in the business. With earnings 20 days away, there is no surprise risk within the horizon, and historically similar setups show 3 consecutive wins in comparable configurations.