Señal Argentina · October 22, 2026
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator posted a marginal seasonally adjusted monthly increase of 0,1% in August 2026. In the year-on-year comparison, the indicator dropped 1,7% compared to the same month of 2025. Cumulative growth for the year slowed to 1,2%. Ten of the fifteen sectors surveyed by INDEC recorded year-on-year drops, led by manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade. With this result, the economy would need to expand by more than 8% in September to avoid a technical recession.
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Activity stagnated in August and doubts mount over the economic rebound
The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator posted a marginal seasonally adjusted monthly increase of 0,1% in August 2026. In the year-on-year comparison, the indicator dropped 1,7% compared to the same month of 2025. Cumulative growth for the year slowed to 1,2%. Ten of the fifteen sectors surveyed by INDEC recorded year-on-year drops, led by manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade. With this result, the economy would need to expand by more than 8% in September to avoid a technical recession.
Why it matters
Weak tax revenue stemming from the manufacturing and commercial slowdown strains the government's fiscal anchor. For local equity investors, lower sales and corporate profits compress valuations in the short term. Private analysts are already trimming their annual GDP growth projections toward 1%. At the same time, some traders maintain that fiscal stability will consolidate the disinflationary path and underpin private credit.
What to watch
The upcoming September EMAE print will determine whether the economy formally enters a technical recession. Tracking October tax revenue figures and credit trends will also be critical to gauge domestic demand.
Also matters
Government awarded 90% of AySA for 340 million. Through Resolution 1818/2026, the Ministry of Economy formalized the sale to a private consortium composed of Rowing and Arcos. The signing of the final contract was scheduled for November 13. La Nación Economía →
Grupo México opted out of bidding for Belgrano Cargas. Billionaire Germán Larrea's company withdrew its proposal due to a lack of clarity in the bidding terms. The decision leaves an investment pledge of 3.000 million dollars vacant. Bloomberg Línea →
Chamber of Deputies halted the household debt bill. The lower house approved reforms to the Land Law and the disability statute with opposition backing. By contrast, the administration managed to send the relief measure for indebted families back to committee by 121 votes to 117. El Economista →
Dashboard
| Official dollar | $ 1.545,00 | 0,0% |
| MEP dollar | $ 1.553,80 | +0,3% |
| CCL dollar | $ 1.638,00 | +0,4% |
| Blue dollar (informal rate) | $ 1.565,00 | -0,3% |
| CCL / official spread | 6,0% | |
| Country risk (EMBI) | 674 bp | 0 bp |
| Merval | 2.848.945 points | -0,4% |
| Monetary policy rate | 22,4 % TNA | +1,18 pp |
| BCRA reserves | USD 50.153 M | -91 USD M |
| Oil | USD 99,44 | +2,4% |
| Soybeans | USD 1.259,50 | +1,1% |
| Copper | USD 6,43 | -1,7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | USD 773,09 | +0,5% |
| VIX | 16,7 points | -3,6% |
| U.S. 10-year rate | 5,15 % | +0,03 pp |
What to watch today
| Today | Wholesale self-service store survey. August 2026 AR |
| Today | Supermarket survey. August 2026 AR |
| Today | National shopping center survey. August 2026 AR |
| 28/10 | Treasury · Bill and bond auction AR |
| 28/10 | FOMC · Fed rate decision US |
| 29/10 | U.S. · Personal income and outlays (PCE) US |
This is not an investment recommendation. The information published is general and does not take into account particular situations. Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26.831).
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