Señal Argentina · 28 of October of 2026
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with the market awaiting the interest rate decision. The general consensus anticipates that the body will keep its benchmark rate unchanged, in the range of 3,75% to 4,00%. Markets assign a probability of over 90% to this pause. U.S. year-on-year inflation accelerated to 3,7% in September, maintaining focus on price pressures. The official communication is expected at 15:00 (Buenos Aires time).
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The Fed defines rates on a decisive day for emerging assets and Argentina
The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with the market awaiting the interest rate decision. The general consensus anticipates that the body will keep its benchmark rate unchanged, in the range of 3,75% to 4,00%. Markets assign a probability of over 90% to this pause. U.S. year-on-year inflation accelerated to 3,7% in September, maintaining focus on price pressures. The official communication is expected at 15:00 (Buenos Aires time).
Why it matters
The Fed's decision is key for the cost of global financing. Stable or falling rates in the United States would ease pressure on the dollar and international credit. This would benefit the prices of Argentine dollar-denominated sovereign bonds and could reduce country risk (EMBI). A tightening would make access to external funds more expensive and pressure local assets.
What to watch
Attention will focus on the body's monetary policy communication. Signals about the Fed's future stance will be sought, especially ahead of the December meeting. Any indication regarding the rate path will impact markets.
Also matters
IMF approved technical review of the program. The body technically approved the third review of the program with Argentina. This paves the way for a US$ 900 million disbursement. La Nación Economy →
Criticism of official exchange intervention. Domingo Cavallo and Emmanuel Álvarez Agis questioned the official intervention in the exchange market. This generated debate among City economists. El Economista →
Dashboard
| official dollar | $ 1.560,00 | 0,0% |
| MEP | $ 1.560,90 | -1,1% |
| CCL | $ 1.655,70 | -1,6% |
| blue dollar (informal rate) | $ 1.575,00 | 0,0% |
| CCL / official gap | 6,1% | |
| country risk (EMBI) | 753 bp | -12 bp |
| Merval | 2.848.945 points | -0,4% |
| Monetary policy rate | 20,9% TNA | -1,30 pp |
| BCRA Reserves as of 23/10 | USD 50.208 M | +39 USD M |
| Oil | USD 101,65 | +1,8% |
| Soybeans | USD 1.247,00 | +1,4% |
| Copper | USD 6,62 | +0,0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | USD 769,66 | +0,6% |
| VIX | 17,5 points | -4,7% |
| U.S. 10-year rate | 4,99 % | +0,01 pp |
What to watch today
| Today | Treasury · Bills and bonds auction AR |
| Today | FOMC · Fed rate decision US |
| Today | INDEC Reports AR |
| 29/10 | U.S. · Personal Income and Spending (PCE) US |
| 29/10 | U.S. · GDP US |
This is not an investment recommendation. The information published is general and does not consider particular situations. Operating in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26.831).
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