El Oráculo · AL30: CPI today + auction tomorrow, spread compresses
Machine translation of the Spanish original. Read the original
INDEC releases September CPI today (importance 3) and the Treasury is auctioning bills and bonds tomorrow. If the data confirms the disinflationary trend continues, hard-dollar bonds in pesos benefit in two ways: sovereign spread compression and rollover demand at the auction. AL30 is just -0.72% off its 60d high with positive momentum (+1.1% in 20d) and above the MA20 (+1.89%), indicating that the market is already positioned but today's catalyst is not yet reflected in price.
El Oráculo
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
| AL30 | BOND |
■DUAL CATALYST: INFLATION DATA + AUCTION DEMAND
Target +1.8% · 3 sessions
|
Conf. 5/10 |
Prob. 52% |
Target +1.8% |
Stop -1.5% |
AL30: CPI today + auction tomorrow, spread compresses
Key data point
EMBI 589 bp, AL30 at -0.72% from the 60d high, INDEC CPI today
The thesis
Context
This is not an investment recommendation. The information published is general and does not take into account individual circumstances. Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss. Consult a registered financial advisor before making decisions (Law 26.831).
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